President Trump has had many a cartoon about him as a child throwing toys and anything to hand out of the playpen. Now, of course, we can watch him as he throws out tariffs, trading and border threats with seemingly little thought of the potential effects on the rest of the world. However, perhaps I am the one who must change my view of him as this version of Trump 2.0 is rather different from the first edition. He is still the brash and gauche Trump of before, but now he is acting as a challenger to the somewhat complacent view of political norm we have grown used to.
His statements may seem overly aggressive, but they are deliberately challenging the status quo at a time when global economic and power points are shifting. China is flexing its political muscles around the globe and continuing its financial influence in third world nations, but at the same time its domestic economy has some key issues to address in areas such as property and weakening growth.
So, although China has promptly reacted to Trump’s tariff terms, it also realizes that both nations actually need each other. I am not so sure that the President quite appreciates this as yet.
Both nations are in a symbiotic relationship. China needs America as it is the country’s largest and most valuable customer; America though also needs China as it is one of the largest holders of U.S. government debt and as such is financing the U.S. economy. Sometimes they are the largest holder of the debt, but this seems to be a status shared between them and the Japanese.
So, what is the answer? The Chinese certainly will not wish to be seen to be backing down but rather be “saving face” with a show of strength. And as for Trump? I am not too sure that he cares. He has thrown the cards up in the air to make a change, and a change there will be – yes, a compromise where all can claim some success, but the reality is that circumstances had been altered – and it has been forced by Trump.
As for those issues closer to home for the President, managing your northern and southern borders is less straightforward. Manufacturing, especially in motor vehicles, is thoroughly mixed up between all three nations as component parts cross borders the entire time. However here the issue of immigration and drug trafficking – especially from the south – is of greater popular political value. This actually is an issue which the Mexicans too want to address, and greater US collaboration can only help.
Regarding Canada, I find this more perplexing as you will recall that this is the longest unguarded border in the world! (remember 1812 when those dashed Yankees attacked York – now Toronto – that will fool them). Canada sees itself as America’s greatest friend and ally, but I think this is more likely to be more personal as Trump seems to personally and actively dislike Justin Trudeau. However, he is on the way out anyway and a new leader will be able to to reset that relationship.
I should also mention the EU, which has certainly been in the sights of Trump. The trouble is that the EU now appears almost both leaderless and rudderless, giving the impression that it is now being run by a committee of bureaucrats. With a war on its eastern flank and division amongst its members towards the aggressive Bear, they are not appearing to be in a strong position. The EU economy seems lackluster, with even the German industrial powerhouse seemingly out of puff. And with no clear vision it will suffer from Trump’s tantrums.
As for the UK? An independent friend or a tail wagging poodle fitting in with opinions of the most powerful nation in the world? We have yet to see but according to the mutter from the gutter, rather perversely the relationship between Trump and Starmer seems to be neither abrasive nor negative. Mind you, our Prime Minister does seem to have all the abrasiveness of a bar of soap.
Taking all of this into account, such tariffs may be more than just minor issues but the President’s quest to challenge the status quo and the complacency of the rest of the world could be a very healthy development. Although of course it could go badly wrong, especially with a poorer and weaker but dangerous power in Russia, which is being run by a dangerous dictator who will do whatever is necessary to protect his own power, position and pride.
Challenging the “norm” is healthy and should be supported – but we all have to make sure that creative change doesn’t become dangerous destruction.
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